2011-01-11

How robots will change the world

It's just a question of time - robots will come to our households. Worldwide, research centers are developping humanoid robots, and a lot of money is invested into this. Actually, the robot prototypes that exist today perform surprisingly well. For example, watch this Japanese robots clean floors, wash dishes and do laundry:


 

Humanoid robots will replace humans in many areas of work, such as cleaning, construction or transportation.  This will have several effects on our society: More freedom for the ones who can afford robots - but a deep economical shift towards a content society.

I am  absolutely convinced that it is not a question if, but when humanoid robots will appear in our daily lives. I expect humanoid robots for the mass market in ten to fifteen years. It will feel a lot like the technology explosions we experienced in the last decade, such as Facebook or Smartphones: A technology comes out  of nowhere, and suddenly, everyone has adopted it. And here are the reasons why I'm this certain:


  • Prototypes show the feasibility of humanoid robotic workers today. These videos look like science fiction movies, but they're real research prototypes.
  • Robot research is supported by vast sums of money. In Japan, Switzerland and the United States, the most respectable research institutions are developing new methods and parts for robot hardware and software.
  • Humanoid robots are the business opportunity. They work for free without asking for raises or vacations. Every entrepreneur will want robotic workers - they're just perfect employees.
  • Robotic servants are unimaginably convenient. Who doesn't want a housekeeping robot who does all the cleaning and tidying? In fact, you can buy a (very simple) robotic vacuum cleaner today.

A common argument against humanoid housekeeping robots is their lack of manual sensibility. "They're going to crash all my dishes with their metal claws!" If you think so, think again - since 2007, there exists a robot who has the soft touch of a violinist.



The ones who can afford a robot will have much more freedom in their daily lives. If a consumer robot costs about the same amount as a car, people with a regular salary will be able to lease a robot, just like they can lease a car today. While we're at work, our robot will do all the boring housekeeping stuff, and in the evening, we will go out with friends instead of cleaning the kitchen.

But - there's always a but. If robots can cook - how many humans will loose their job at McDonalds? If robots can carry wheights - how many human workers are still needed on construction sites? With the rise of humanoid robots, manual human work opportunities will diminish. Of course, automation has destroyed jobs for centuries. Robots have replaced factory workers, digital printers have driven human printers out of business, etcetera. Thus, humans will have to focus on jobs that machines can't do - knowledge-based work. For those who already earn their living with knowledge based services, robots will be a great help. For the ones living off manual labor, times will get hard.